Here it is, early November, a time when we should be formulating Thanksgiving plans, savoring the cooler weather and, of course, celebrating the historic election of Barack Obama.

Yet, at least in this small corner of the world, we’re still keeping an eye on a tropical system.

The same disturbance that’s been lingering in the Caribbean near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua for the past couple of days is getting better organized.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate it this afternoon.

For now, the system does not appear to be a threat to Florida. Most computer models project it will pass south of the state as it moves northeast.

Those projections could change, however, if it develops a closed circulation. So we’ll continue to keep an eye on it.

A few of you recently inquired as to how accurate William Gray and Phil Klotzbach were in their October forecast.

It seemed there was an assumption the two Colorado State University climatologists were far off the mark.

“What happened with the ‘MAJOR’ hurricane predicted for October by your hero Dr. Fool from Colorado?” a skeptic named Josh wrote in a comment last week.

Turns out Gray and Klotzbach were pretty much right on target.

The two called for three named storms, including two hurricanes. They predicted one of the hurricanes would be a major one.

In actuality, three named storms formed, though only one grew into a hurricane - a MAJOR one:

Tropical Storm Marco, which formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and hit Mexico;

Tropical Storm Nana, which briefly emerged in the Central Atlantic;

And Hurricane Omar, which developed in the Caribbean and grew to Category 3 status with 125 mph winds as it passed near the northern Lesser Antilles.

Had Marco been 10 mph stronger, it would have been designated a hurricane and the Gray-Klotzbach forecast would have been perfect. Instead, Marco’s maximum sustained winds reached 65 mph.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean near Honduras and Nicaragua.

Potentially, it could grow into Tropical Storm Paloma over the next couple of days, forecasters said.

As of this morning, computer models aim the system south of Florida, although at this stage that guidance is far from reliable.

With tens of thousands of Central Florida voters anxious to elect a new president, here's Tuesday's forecast:

Partly sunny skies with a light breeze. Morning temperatures should be in the low 60s, increasing into the low 80s in the afternoon. By the time the polls close, conditions should cool somewhat, the National Weather Service said.

That’s as far as the predictions go because I’m not about to project who the next president will be.

Not that foolish.

No matter who I picked, the other side would come down on me like a flaming meteor plowing headlong into the Earth.

I will venture, however, that turnout is going to be heavy because people tend to get out and vote in nice weather.

(Really went out on a limb there, didn’t I? But some political scientists conducted a study and actually confirmed this theory. Indeed, they found that rain reduces voter turnout at a rate of just under one percent per inch.)

On the other hand, I doubt that even a tropical storm would stop people from flooding to the polls this time around. The candidates are too interesting – and the stakes too high.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, saying it has a medium chance of development.

At 2 a.m. this Sunday, we fall back, insofar as the time goes.

This is the second year that daylight saving time has been extended by about a month.

How did the new schedule work out for you?

Did you enjoy seeing sunlight later into the evenings?

I’m probably in the minority, but I, personally, preferred the old schedule, where daylight saving lasted from April to October.

During the cooler months, I like the early onset of night.

Something about brisk air and darkness go together. Perhaps that stems from the days of living up North, when you would throw a few logs in the fireplace after sunset.

Further, the after-hours adult beverages seem to taste better when it’s dark outside.

That’s just me.

The new schedule is likely to stick. It was originally mandated under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 as a means to reduce electrical demand; people tend to use less energy at night when there’s still light in the sky, according to federal studies.

As Halloween is on Friday night, you probably want to know the forecast.

But first, in the spirit of the holiday, I’d like to relate something weird that happened to me one Halloween, long ago.

Back when I was a teenager, I took my girlfriend to Lovers' Lane, which was nestled along this remote road.

After we parked in a secluded spot, I turned on the radio of my car, a 1958 Plymouth Fury, and tuned in some romantic music.

In case you were wondering, my girlfriend was very pretty, although she was a bit uptight.

Anyway, we were getting all cuddly when, all of the sudden, the music stopped and this news announcer came on the radio. He had urgency in his voice, like the entire country was under attack by aliens or something.

“This just in,” he said. “A convicted murderer has just escaped from the state insane asylum. He can be identified by a sharp steel hook in place of a right hand. He is to be considered extremely dangerous.”

As you might imagine, this got our attention, especially since Lovers' Lane wasn’t that far from the asylum. We could actually see it off in the distance, along with some other sinister structures.

“If you happen to see this man, do not, under any circumstances, approach him,” the announcer continued, deadly serious. “Immediately report his whereabouts to the police.”

I almost panicked.

Then I realized: It’s Halloween. So the radio people probably are playing a prank, pretending there’s some monster out there.

However, hearing this, my girlfriend turned to me and demanded that we get out of there.

“Just take me home, please,” she said.

At that moment, I didn’t care if an ax murderer was lurking in the vicinity. My motor was running, and I’m not talking about the one under the hood of my car.

So I locked all the doors.

“We’re safe now; no one could possibly hurt us,” I insisted and attempted to pick up where we left off.

But she pushed me away and frantically insisted, “I want to get out of here. Now!”

Relenting, irritated, I jerked the car into gear. The wheels spun as we pulled away.

From there, needless to say, it was a moody ride back to her place.

After pulling in her driveway, she jumped out and went to close the car door.

That’s when she started screaming hysterically.

I ran around to her side to see what was wrong.

There, dangling from the door handle, was a ...

Eh, forget it. You wouldn’t believe me even if I told you.

Anyway, the Halloween forecast: Partly cloudy skies with a 20 percent change of rain and temperatures in the low 60s.

Man, it was chilly out there, this morn, at least for late October.

At 7 a.m., it was 44 degrees in Orlando; 41 degrees in Tampa, 45 degrees in Daytona Beach and 34 degrees in Gainesville.

All told, pretty cool weather, almost cold enough to keep a polar bear happy.

I, personally, took advantage of the crisp conditions by getting out for my pre-dawn walk. However, I confess, I bundled up.

How about you? You enjoying this brisk air?

It won't last long.

The forecast calls for conditions to warm up to the upper 60s this afternoon and the mid 70s by Thursday afternoon.

By the way, the same front that has blanketed this region in cold has chilled out much of the Southeast as well. It was 30 degrees in Tallahassee; 30 degrees in Birmingham, Ala.; 34 degrees in Atlanta and 36 degrees in Jackson, Miss., this morning.

Conrad Lautenbacher is departing his post at the end of this week.

Conrad who?

Lautenbacher – the top honcho at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the sprawling federal agency that oversees the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center.

He has quietly held that job for the past seven years.

I say “quietly” because about the only time he really made a news splash was when he ousted Bill Proenza as the hurricane center director last year.

Otherwise, you would see Lautenbacher, a retired Navy admiral, read a bureaucratic statement at press conferences, announcing the beginning of hurricane season.

All told, Lautenbacher has accomplished a lot.

He supported a program to markedly improve hurricane forecast accuracy over the next decade.

He helped create a tsunami warning system in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

And he has worked hard to protect marine life, including the creation of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument in the Pacific Ocean.

Now, like dozens of other political appointees, he is packing his desk because a new president will soon take office. No word yet on a possible replacement.

This is really going to be a cool week.

Now that a blanket of brisk air is settling over the state, temperatures are forecast to drop temperatures into the mid 40s by Tuesday night – the coolest temperatures of the fall season, just in time for Halloween.

Tuesday’s high temperature: In the high 60s. It also should be windy, with gusts up to 25 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

That should be the coldest day – if you can honestly call that “cold” – of this nice little cool snap, which should last until Thursday.

Today should be sunny, breezy and temperate, with afternoon high temperatures in the high 70s and low temperatures this evening in the high 40s, the weather service said.

Because of dry conditions, the weather service has posted a red flag warning -- meaning an increased chance of wildfire danger -- for much of Central and North Florida.

For many native Floridians, the cooler temperatures are tantamount to the coming of the next ice age. To them, anything lower than 70 degrees is hot coffee, sweater and blanket weather.

To me, the cool down is heaven. Then again, I’m originally from Cleveland, Ohio, where the winters can drop to 20 below zero and seemingly last forever.

A few hours after Hurricane Wilma plowed over South Florida, I finally returned home. Up to that point, I had been at work in a newsroom.

What I found: My pool screen had collapsed. The back of the house had been defaced, gutters and beams sheared off. Several roof shingles had peeled off.

I considered myself lucky that it hadn’t been much worse.

Today is third anniversary of Hurricane Wilma, which hit Florida on the morning of Oct. 24, 2005.

Here in Central Florida, this wasn't a big deal; the storm passed well to the south.

Yet in South Florida, where many Orlando residents have family, friends or business ties, Wilma remains a fresh memory. Those who experienced the hurricane, South Florida's most destructive since Andrew in 1992, won't soon forget living in the dark, the long gas lines or the mountains of debris.

Interestingly, three years later, many people continue to insist that Wilma hit South Florida as a major hurricane. The storm did strike Southwest Florida as a Category 3 system with 120 mph winds.

But by the time it reached the east side of the state, it had weakened to a Category 2 storm.

Here is what the National Hurricane Center said in its final report on Wilma:

“Based on the surface observations and the Doppler data it can be concluded that most of the southeastern Florida peninsula experienced at least category 1 hurricane conditions, and that some parts of northern Miami-Dade County, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties likely had category 2 hurricane conditions, including wind gusts to near [115 mph] at the standard 10 m height above ground.”

Were you, per chance, in South Florida when Wilma steamed through?

The report is fairly alarming.

Government scientists recently completed an annual study of the Arctic and essentially found that global warming continues unabated.

Specifically, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Arctic Report Card:

-- There has been a near-record loss of Arctic sea ice;

-- Loss of this ice allows more solar heating of the ocean. That in turn, endangers land and marine life;

-- There was abnormal melting of surface ice in Greenland over the summer;

-- Autumn temperatures in the arctic are a record 9 degrees above normal;

-- 2007 was the warmest on record in the Arctic.

All told, scary stuff.

But it's hard to get worked up over this.

Perhaps that is because a number of reputable scientists dispute the notion that global warming is on the verge of creating cataclysmic consequences. They say the jury is still out as to whether the warming is the result of human activity or a natural cycle.

In any case, I’ll be sure to turn out the lights in my house whenever possible.